Buy or Sell Homes in South East Valley of Arizona

Navigating uncharted territory without a compass is challenging at best. Nothing about this year’s real estate activity fits into the usual cyclical patterns. Data companies are updating their projections seemingly daily. Projections are based on trends and it takes at least 3 weeks to see an emerging trend. Before the trends, there is consumer sentiment. Home has never been more important. Today we live, work, play, and teach at home. This is why real estate is the shining star in the midst of so much bad news. With a 58% increase in new starts from June to July, multi-family new builds made up the majority of the 22.6% new housing starts in July over June. The new builds are the only thing keeping prices from skyrocketing out of control. (Bisnow) In July, single family starts were up 7.4% year over year. (Elliot Eisenberg) New single-family sales are were up in July 36.3% year over year. (US Census Bureau & HUD) Resale closings in July were up 24.7% from June which were up 20.7% ...

Inventory is the story for the greater Phoenix real estate market in July.  Active listings were down 4.1% to 15,442.  The median price continues to rise, up 4.1% to $279,000. Lack of inventory continues to squeeze buyers, especially below $200,000. And now buyers looking for something between $200,000 and $250,000 are having a difficult time too, as new listings in this price range were down a whopping 15.1%! Fortunately, interest rates are still favorable, with 30-year loans at 3.75% with .5 points, down .78% from one year ago (Freddie Mac, 07/11/2019). In their July/2019 report, Freddie Mac says: “The recent stabilization in mortgage rates reflects modestly improving U.S. economic data and a more accommodative tone from the Federal Reserve to respond to the rising downside economic risk from trade tensions and soft global economic data. On the housing front, the latest weekly purchase application data suggests homebuyer demand continues to rise, which is co...

Residential real estate in greater Phoenix continues to see price appreciation, driven by modest personal pay increases and falling interest rates.  Current 30-year conventional loans are 3.82% with .5 points. (Fannie Mae, June 2019)    Further, the Federal Reserve is now forecasting a drop in rates through next year with many Wall Street analysts predicting three reductions of ¼ point each over the next 12 months.   Why the change in rate forecast? Late last year, signs of a significant slowing in the U.S. (and global) economies began to emerge.  The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) had slowed, and forecasts were predicting continued slowing over the next several months.  Also, the U.S. found itself in a significant trade dispute with China (and for a brief time, Mexico), and trade disputes are almost never good for global economic growth.  With the economy significantly slowing, the Fed announced its intent to change its forecast of approximatel...

After a slow start in 2019, home sales and their corollary “listings under contract” continue their rise into early April, now slightly exceeding the sales and listings under contract for this same period in 2018.  Most of the improvement in sales and buyer interest can be attributed to our continually falling interest rates. Interest rates have declined throughout 2019 since peaking in early November of last year at 4.94% (Freddie Mac).  As of April, rates are down almost a full point from that high, to 4.08% (Freddie Mac, April 4, 2019). The monthly median sales price for greater Phoenix is up 4.6% year over year to $266,000, so buyers and sellers should still expect a relatively competitive market.  However, since much of what is driving our current market can be attributed to falling interest rates, buyers and sellers would be wise to keep an eye on rate changes (and their drivers), as any significant change in rates and rate direction would likely directly and qui...

February finds our real estate market still leaning in the seller’s favor but with definite and continued movement toward a buyer/seller balance. Home supply is still below average, and demand for homes is well below this same time last year. That said, comparing to this same time last year, the number of active listings is up  10.6%  and the monthly median sales price of  $262,000  is up  6.9%. Our continued price appreciation on housing, combined with higher interest rates, naturally makes for less demand, and listings under contract are down  13.9%  from last year. Many buyers are sitting on the sidelines, apparently uncomfortable with current pricing and interest rate uncertainty. The flux in the stock market is also a factor in buyer uncertainty.   On the interest rate front, the Fed has recently announced that it will pause its planned interest rate hikes for 2019 and instead more closely monitor the U.S. and other world economies. Th...

Last month STAT projected a median sales price for July of $223,000 with the added caveat that their mathematical projections have been coming in slightly lower than the actual results for most of this year. They expected a decline in the median sales price in July, but they also thought it would probably not be as low as our projection of $223,000. The actual median sales price in July was $225,000, 0.9% higher than the $223,000 projected by our mathematical model.  Looking ahead to August, the ARMLS Pending Price Index projects a median sales price of $225,000. MLS sales volume in July 2016 was at 7,630, which was 284 fewer sales than July 2015 at 7,914. STAT had expected July sales volume to be lower than the total last year as there were only 20 business days this year compared to 22 business days last year. We begin August with 6,705 pending and 3,633 UCB listings giving us a total of 10,338 residential listings practically under contract. This compares to 9,726 of the same ...

National Home Prices Continue to Rise Median home prices are showing strong year-over-year growth. Annual prices reached the highest rate in the past eight years in November, when the national median existing-home price climbed to $196,300. The median time for a home to stay on the market in November was 56 days—a slight drop from October's median of 54 days but a significant improvement over November 2012's...   Read More 7 Mistakes to Avoid When Investing in Real Estate There is money to be made in real estate, but you need to think about real estate investing as the business it is. Here are some common mistakes that beginning investors should avoid.   1. Getting emotionally involved. This is the biggest and most common mistake beginning investors make. Emotions and business do not mix well. In this case, falling in love with a property will almost always ensure that...   Read More What a Home Inspection Can Do for You While giving a new $900,000 home a thor...